A Constitutional Crisis? A Look into how the next POTUS doesn't even have their Name on the Ballot
There are millions of different scenarios that the United States can experience on November 3rd. All these scenarios are based off different combinations of the electoral college voting count. As we saw in 2016, the idea of polling was largely proved to be ineffective as nearly all polls indicated a Secretary Clinton victory while President Trump managed to dominant the electoral college count winning by a grand total of 306 to 232. This shocked nearly all Americans as the world was turned upside down. Regardless of your views or which way you voted on that day, you were most likely shocked to see Donald Trump become President Elect Donald Trump.
The year 2020 has shown us that anything is possible. It has also shown us that it is wise to expect the unexpected. Throughout the course of this blog I will present outcomes that may be considered to be “unexpected.” That does not mean the notions of this blog should be dismissed as foolish or impossible.
Looking at this election from a purely statistical perspective, it is unlikely that the outcome I write about in the course of this blog will actually occur. However, it would not be exciting to write or read about the most likely outcome of this critical election. Thus, I would like to clarify my position before you begin to read.
I do not believe that the events I describe in this blog will actually take place. There is an extremely small probability that even one of these events occurs let alone a large string of these events that I will piece together. The opinions expressed in this blog do not necessarily correlate with my political beliefs. Instead, this is a mere fun, and statistical way to look at this year’s election. Without further ado, here’s why Nancy Pelosi will be the next sitting President of the United States.
Introduction:
I, like most, consider the United States to be a constitutional republic. The first part of this term suggests that the US has a constitution. In fact, we have had the same constitution for nearly 250 years. This document has been the guiding force for governing for all representatives in the history of the United States. Without this document, we lose the divide that separates our leaders from becoming Kings. The constitution shows that no person is above the law and declares that the rights of the individual supersede any law passed by government. The second term suggests that we are a republic. A republic is a government where representatives vote on laws. These representatives are voted into office by the people. The United States is a constitutional republic.
Outlined in this constitution is a plan for electing presidents. Presidents are indirectly elected by the citizens through the electoral college. In order to become the next president, a candidate must win the majority of the electoral votes. This number is 270. A failure for any candidate to reach 270 electoral votes means that the next president will no longer be decided by the people and instead by the House of Representatives. In present day, a two-party system nearly makes it impossible for one candidate to not reach 270 votes. However, it is nearly impossible, not fully impossible. Assuming no presidential candidate reaches 270 electoral votes, it can also be assumed that no Vice-Presidential candidate received 270 votes. The election for Vice President would then be determined by the Senate. This entire process, which is outlined in the constitution, would be taking place from November 3rd up until January 20th. This process would most likely be extremely chaotic and would turn the world upside down even more than it already is. On January 20th, what happens if the House can’t decide who the President is? On January 20th, what happens if the House is in a tie? On January 20th, what happens if the Senate can’t decide who the Vice President is? On January 20th, what happens If the Senate is in a tie? Let’s start at a place where nearly everyone can understand. In fact, the first step to this process is already underway.
Step 1: The General Election for President of the United States
The Presidential Election, as noted earlier, is an indirect election in which members of the electoral college choose who the next President is. However, the electors do not have as much choice as people think they do. While electors are not required (in some states they are, in some states they are not) to cast their ballot for the candidate who received more votes in their state, 99.9% of the time, electors do vote for the leading candidate in their state. For this scenario, we are going to assume that all electors vote this way. So, if we are looking at this entire scenario from a purely statistic perspective, it is unlikely that the electoral college will be locked in a 269-269 tie. However, this is extremely possible. Take a look at the electoral map from 2016.
Donald Trump won by a count of 306 to 232. It is important to note that he nearly won every swing state including Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. These six states will most likely decide the outcome of this years election. Currently, Biden is leading in the polls in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, many experts agree that Trump can still be considered the favorite in Pennsylvania. If Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin were all to flip from red to blue as they are expected to do, the electoral college would be in a 269-269 tie(232(from Clinton)+11(Arizona)+10(Wisconsin)+16(Michigan)=269). Once again, this is not the most likely outcome of the election as we cannot trust the polls to make accurate predictions. However, I would argue this scenario is an extremely likely possibility.
Courtesy of 270towin.com
However, this is not the only map where the two candidates will have 269 electoral votes. Other maps include the following:
Courtesy of 270towin.com
Courtesy of 270towin.com
As you can see, the possibility of a 269-269 tie is extremely possible. This result has never happened before in a United States Presidential Election. Thus, there is no precedent as to what happens next. However, the constitution does have a plan for this scenario. Once again, I must say these are not the most likely outcomes of the election. Even if the electoral map looks like this on election night, one of the 538 electoral voters could choose to change their vote to the candidate who they prefer rather than their state. Now, lets run with the 269-269 scenario and try to figure out what comes next.
Step 2: The Contingent House Election for President of the United States
For anyone who considers themselves to be well educated in the political world, the contingent House Election may bring some surprises. It is a common misconception that the House of Representatives will decide who the President is. Instead, the states decide who the next President will be. The Representatives do not cast their ballots individually. Instead, the states vote in a way called en bloc so that each state gets one vote for the presidency. It is also important to note that the newly elected Congress gets to vote on who the new President will be. Originally, the old Congress chose but it was changed many years ago. In order to become president, 26 of the 50 states must vote for a candidate. This is relevant in today’s political climate because while the Democrats have a strong hold on this Congress as well as the next projected Congress, it does not mean that Joe Biden will be chosen by the House of Representatives. In fact, as it stands right now, the Republicans actually control 26 states meaning they have enough states to elect a President if there were to be a contingent election. However, it is predicted that the Republicans will lose a number of seats in this year’s election which could cause the number of states controlled by republicans to 25. The most likely state to flip is Florida which currently has 14 Republican representatives and 13 Democratic Representatives. So, what happens if 25 states vote for Vice President Biden and 25 states vote for President Trump. The answer is that absolutely nothing will happen. Congress will continue to vote and vote and vote until the tie is broken. We witnessed this situation during the election of 1800 where Aaron Burr and Thomas Jefferson were tied in a House Contingent Election. However, that scenario 220 years ago was different because those two candidates were members of the same party. Ultimately, Alexander Hamilton convinced many of his colleagues to change their votes to support Jefferson which resulted in the Jefferson Presidency. For us, it wont be as simple. It would be extremely difficult to convince representatives to vote against a member of their own party. So how likely is a 25-25 draw in the House? Considering the Republicans will most likely still have control of 26 states it is not very likely. However, we can see many Republicans lose their seats or even some Republicans voting across party lines which we have seen occur on previous pieces of legislation. For the sake of this scenario we will run with the idea that a 25-25 draw will occur. While it is not the most likely scenario, it is possible. Assuming the electoral college is a 269-269 draw, the newly elected Congress would have until January 20th at 12:00pm to conclude. If no conclusion is made, the Vice President would become the next President of the United States. However, this assumes that the Vice President was already picked. That leads us to Step 3 of this chaotic process.
Courtesy of Britannica.com
Step 3: The Senate Contingent Election for President of the United States
In contrast with the Contingent Election in the House of Representatives, the contingent election in the Senate is much simpler to predict and understand. To clarify, if the electoral college is in a 269-269 tie, the Vice-Presidential Election will be determined by the newly elected Senate. Currently, the Senate consists of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. However, this is subject to change in this year’s election much like the House. Based on current polling, it is likely that the Senate will be in a 50-50 tie following this year’s elections. So how did 53 falls to 50? I predict that four seats in the Senate will flip parties. These are the seats from Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, and Maine. The rest of the Senate seats that are up for election will all go to the incumbent or in the case where the incumbent is not running, then the seat will go to the same seat as the incumbent. The four seats that are most likely to flip are consisted of one Democrat and three Republicans. These Senators are Doug Jones, Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, and Susan Collins. If these four candidates all those their elections as they are predicted to do so, the Senate will be in a 50-50 partisan tie. Much like the House, it is fair to assume that these Senators will vote with their parties. Failure to vote within partisan lies would most likely end that Senator’s political career as it would be considered treasonous by the party. Keep in mind it is possible and of course fully legal. However, a 50-50 tie would mean that no Vice-Presidential Candidate would have the majority of the Senate’s vote. Similar to the House, the senate would continue to vote and vote until a majority is reached. What makes this idea unique is the power of the Vice President in relation to the Senate. Throughout a Vice President’s term in office, they act as the 101st senator as they are responsible for breaking any tie when passing legislation. Vice President Pence finishes his term as Vice President on January 20th. Technically, this means that the Vice President has the power to break the tie in a vote for Vice President. Once again, there is no precedent for this scenario. Constitutional scholars disagree on this matte as it seems awfully unfair for a Vice President to be the deciding vote in electing himself. Based on brief research, it appears as if most Constitutional lawyers agree the Vice President would not be able to break this tie and eventually the Senate would have to reach a majority. The Senate would have until January 20th to elect a Vice President. If a Vice President is not elected than the new government is started with no one in the Vice-Presidential position. So, if there is no President or Vice President on January 20th at 12:00pm, what happens?
Courtesy of Britannica.com
Step 4: The Speaker of the House Becomes President of the United States
Lets summarize where we are thus far. First, the electoral college looked to be in a tie as Vice President Biden won the swing states consisting of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan while President Trump won the swing states consisting of Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. This resulted in a tie in the electoral college so when the group convened to put in their official votes, there was no majority winner. The elections then want to the new Congress where the House of Representatives could not reach a 26-state majority in determining the election of the next President. The Vice-Presidential election was left to the Senate where a 50-50 partisan split left the Senate without a majority in determining the next Vice President. Now comes January 20th 12:00pm where the next president is supposed to be sworn in at the Capitol. However, there is no President or Vice President to be sworn in. Congress is in a deadlock. The Presidential Line of Succession goes as follows: The Vice President, Speaker of the House, Pro Tempore of the Senate. On January 20th at 12:00pm the Speaker of the House will be sworn in not as the leader of Congress, but as the President of the United States. Considering the Democrats are nearly guaranteed to retain control of the House of Representatives during this election, Nancy Pelosi will be the President of the United States. In a turn of events no one had ever expected, the first woman president will be Nancy Pelosi. As far as what would come next, it is not clear. Most likely, the House and Senate would continue to vote and attempt to break the tie. Nancy Pelosi would serve as President until the tie is broken. In a situation like this, there is no precedent to consider, anything within the bounds of the Constitution can happen. Although this would be taking place in January 2021, it would be the most “2020” event to happen all year.
Courtesy of latimes.com
Conclusion:
Thank you for spending the time to read and consider this wild scenario. As I continue to say, this series of events has an extremely small probability of occurring. Personally, I do not think this will happen. It is awesome to be able to understand the Constitution so that these kinds of scenarios can be considered. Come election night, we will most likely know who the next President will be. There is a 99.9% chance that come January 20th, Nancy Pelosi will not be the sitting President. Once again, there is no fun in discussing the most likely outcomes. I hope you enjoyed this wild ride. Please Share!
Courtesy of nypost.com
Written and Edited by Hudson J. Schantz
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